Lead Market Report October 2014
2014-11-17 18:50:29 【Print】
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Introduction 4
1 Financial overview 4
1.1 Domestic financial overview 4
1.1 . 1 CPI up by 1 . 6% and PPI down by 1.8% YOY in September 4
1.1 . 2 PMI down by 0.3% in October 5
1.2 International financial overview 5
1.2.1 Crude oil futures prices continue to fall back 5
1.2.2 US dollar continues to strengthen in October 6
2. International Market Review 7
2.1 Lead futures drop continuously on the LME during October 7
2.2 North American lead market flat in October 9
2.3 North American spent lead acid battery market improves in October 9
3. Chinese market review 9
3.1 Lead concentrate still in tight supply on the Chinese market 9
3.2 Lead ingot prices soften on the Chinese market in October 10
3.3 Secondary lead prices fall slightly 11
3.4 Recycled lead battery prices decline with active trading 14
3.5 Lead acid battery market revives 16
4. Production Data 18
4.1 World supply of refined lead metal exceeds demand by a marginal 23kt during Jan-Aug 2014 18
4.2 Lead production in China 19
4.2 . 1 China’s lead concentrate output up by 4.39% MOM in September 2014 19
4.2 . 2 China’s refined lead ingot production up by 1.44% MOM in September 2014 19
4.2 . 3 Chinese primary lead smelters’ lead ingot output up by 3.68% MOM in October 20
4.2 . 4 Secondary lead output of major smelters up by 5.5% MOM in October 21
4.2 . 5 Lead ingot stocks at Chinese primary lead smelters up by 21.76% MOM in late October 2014 22
4.2 . 6 Recycled lead battery inventories held by major secondary lead smelters down by 4.7% MOM by the end of October 23
4.2 . 7 Major smelters’ secondary lead stocks down by 1.6% MOM in late October 24
5. Import and export data in China 25
5.1 Lead import and export data in China by country: 25
5.2 Analysis of lead import & export data 26
5.2.1 China’s lead ore/concentrate imports up by 31.70% MOM in September 2014 26
5.2 . 2 China’s refined lead exports down by 19.34% MOM in September 2014 29
5.3 Top ten Chinese lead ore/concentrate importers in September 2014 30
5.4 Chinese lead acid battery exports down by 13.6% MOM in September 30
6. Company News 32
6.1 Chihong Zinc & Germanium’s lead smelting project starts trial production in Inner Mongolia on October 16 32
6.2 Jiyuan Wanyang’s lead output to increase by 10% and silver production stable in October 32
6.3 Yunnan Tin’s lead smelter halts production in mid-October 32
7. Related industry Developments 33
7.1 China’s automobile sales volumes up by 15.62% MOM in September 33
8. Market Outlook 33
Graph 1 CPI and PPI in China 4
Graph 2 China’s PMI in 2014 5
Graph 3 US crude oil futures price trend on major transaction market in October 6
Graph 4 US dollar Index trend 7
Graph 5: The price graph of lead futures on the LME in October 2014 8
Graph 6: Lead ingot inventories in LME warehouses in October 2014 8
Graph 7: Lead concentrate 60%min prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 10
Graph 8: Lead ingot 99.994%min prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 11
Graph 9 Secondary Lead 98%min EX-VAT prices on Chinese market in October 2014 12
Graph 10 Secondary Lead 98%min prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 13
Graph 11 Secondary Lead 99.97%min EX-VAT prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 14
Graph 12 Secondary Lead 99.97%min prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 14
Graph 13 Recycled start-type lead battery EX-VAT prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 15
Graph 14 Recycled deep cycle lead battery EX-VAT prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 16
Graph 15 Processing charges for deep cycle lead battery polar plate in October 2014 17
Graph 16 Processing charges of start-type lead battery polar plate in October 2014 18
Graph 17: Chinese Primary lead smelters’ lead ingot production and operating rates Oct 2013-Oct 2014 20
Graph 18 Major secondary lead smelters' output by region 22
Graph 19 Major secondary lead smelters' recycled lead battery inventories by region 23
Graph 20 Secondary lead stocks allocation of Chinese major smelters 24
Graph 21 Secondary lead stocks allocation of Chinese major smelters in 2014 25
Graph 22: China’s lead concentrate imports Jan 2013-Sep 2014 27
Graph 23: Lead ore/concentrate imported from Australia into China Jan-Sep 2014 28
Graph 24: Lead ore/concentrate imported from Peru into China Jan-Sep 2014 28
Graph 25: China refined lead exports 2013-2014 29
Graph 26 China’s lead acid battery export in 2014 31
Table 1: World Refined Lead Supply and Usage 2009 – 2014 19
Table 2: Operating rates for lead smelters in Henan, Hunan and Yunnan in Oct 2014 21
Table 3: Lead ingot stocks in Henan, Hunan and Yunnan provinces in late October 2014 23
Table 4: China’s lead import and export data in September 2014 26
Table 5 Top ten Chinese lead ore/concentrate importers in September 2014 30
Table 6 The top 20 importing countries for Chinese lead acid batteries in May 32
1 Financial overview 4
1.1 Domestic financial overview 4
1.1 . 1 CPI up by 1 . 6% and PPI down by 1.8% YOY in September 4
1.1 . 2 PMI down by 0.3% in October 5
1.2 International financial overview 5
1.2.1 Crude oil futures prices continue to fall back 5
1.2.2 US dollar continues to strengthen in October 6
2. International Market Review 7
2.1 Lead futures drop continuously on the LME during October 7
2.2 North American lead market flat in October 9
2.3 North American spent lead acid battery market improves in October 9
3. Chinese market review 9
3.1 Lead concentrate still in tight supply on the Chinese market 9
3.2 Lead ingot prices soften on the Chinese market in October 10
3.3 Secondary lead prices fall slightly 11
3.4 Recycled lead battery prices decline with active trading 14
3.5 Lead acid battery market revives 16
4. Production Data 18
4.1 World supply of refined lead metal exceeds demand by a marginal 23kt during Jan-Aug 2014 18
4.2 Lead production in China 19
4.2 . 1 China’s lead concentrate output up by 4.39% MOM in September 2014 19
4.2 . 2 China’s refined lead ingot production up by 1.44% MOM in September 2014 19
4.2 . 3 Chinese primary lead smelters’ lead ingot output up by 3.68% MOM in October 20
4.2 . 4 Secondary lead output of major smelters up by 5.5% MOM in October 21
4.2 . 5 Lead ingot stocks at Chinese primary lead smelters up by 21.76% MOM in late October 2014 22
4.2 . 6 Recycled lead battery inventories held by major secondary lead smelters down by 4.7% MOM by the end of October 23
4.2 . 7 Major smelters’ secondary lead stocks down by 1.6% MOM in late October 24
5. Import and export data in China 25
5.1 Lead import and export data in China by country: 25
5.2 Analysis of lead import & export data 26
5.2.1 China’s lead ore/concentrate imports up by 31.70% MOM in September 2014 26
5.2 . 2 China’s refined lead exports down by 19.34% MOM in September 2014 29
5.3 Top ten Chinese lead ore/concentrate importers in September 2014 30
5.4 Chinese lead acid battery exports down by 13.6% MOM in September 30
6. Company News 32
6.1 Chihong Zinc & Germanium’s lead smelting project starts trial production in Inner Mongolia on October 16 32
6.2 Jiyuan Wanyang’s lead output to increase by 10% and silver production stable in October 32
6.3 Yunnan Tin’s lead smelter halts production in mid-October 32
7. Related industry Developments 33
7.1 China’s automobile sales volumes up by 15.62% MOM in September 33
8. Market Outlook 33
Graph 1 CPI and PPI in China 4
Graph 2 China’s PMI in 2014 5
Graph 3 US crude oil futures price trend on major transaction market in October 6
Graph 4 US dollar Index trend 7
Graph 5: The price graph of lead futures on the LME in October 2014 8
Graph 6: Lead ingot inventories in LME warehouses in October 2014 8
Graph 7: Lead concentrate 60%min prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 10
Graph 8: Lead ingot 99.994%min prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 11
Graph 9 Secondary Lead 98%min EX-VAT prices on Chinese market in October 2014 12
Graph 10 Secondary Lead 98%min prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 13
Graph 11 Secondary Lead 99.97%min EX-VAT prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 14
Graph 12 Secondary Lead 99.97%min prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 14
Graph 13 Recycled start-type lead battery EX-VAT prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 15
Graph 14 Recycled deep cycle lead battery EX-VAT prices on the Chinese spot market in October 2014 16
Graph 15 Processing charges for deep cycle lead battery polar plate in October 2014 17
Graph 16 Processing charges of start-type lead battery polar plate in October 2014 18
Graph 17: Chinese Primary lead smelters’ lead ingot production and operating rates Oct 2013-Oct 2014 20
Graph 18 Major secondary lead smelters' output by region 22
Graph 19 Major secondary lead smelters' recycled lead battery inventories by region 23
Graph 20 Secondary lead stocks allocation of Chinese major smelters 24
Graph 21 Secondary lead stocks allocation of Chinese major smelters in 2014 25
Graph 22: China’s lead concentrate imports Jan 2013-Sep 2014 27
Graph 23: Lead ore/concentrate imported from Australia into China Jan-Sep 2014 28
Graph 24: Lead ore/concentrate imported from Peru into China Jan-Sep 2014 28
Graph 25: China refined lead exports 2013-2014 29
Graph 26 China’s lead acid battery export in 2014 31
Table 1: World Refined Lead Supply and Usage 2009 – 2014 19
Table 2: Operating rates for lead smelters in Henan, Hunan and Yunnan in Oct 2014 21
Table 3: Lead ingot stocks in Henan, Hunan and Yunnan provinces in late October 2014 23
Table 4: China’s lead import and export data in September 2014 26
Table 5 Top ten Chinese lead ore/concentrate importers in September 2014 30
Table 6 The top 20 importing countries for Chinese lead acid batteries in May 32