Australia's iron ore exports expected to peak before declining on weaker China demand
2026-07-09 10:54:07 [Print]
Australia remains the world's largest holder of iron ore resources and the leading producer, exporting 923 million metric tons of iron ore in 2025, according to the quarterly outlook report from Australia's Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
Global steel demand is projected to rise gradually through 2031, driven primarily by India, other Asian economies, and the Middle East, while China's steel consumption and production are expected to edge lower over the same period. As a result, global iron ore trade is forecast to remain broadly stable, though trade flows are set to shift. China's iron ore imports are projected to decline at an average annual rate of 1.8%, while imports by India and other Asian countries are expected to increase. On the supply side, Australia is expected to remain the largest exporter, although shipments from Brazil and African producers-particularly Guinea-are forecast to rise steadily.
Australia's iron ore export volumes are expected to peak over the next two years as production ramps up at Fortescue's Iron Bridge, Mineral Resources' Onslow, and BHP's South Flank. Export volumes are then projected to ease slightly in the latter part of the outlook period, weighed by weakening Chinese demand and expanding African supply.
Australian iron ore production is forecast to increase from 972 million metric tons in 2025-26 to just over 1 billion metric tons during 2026-29, before declining to 958 million metric tons by 2030-31. Exports are projected to rise from 926 million metric tons in 2025-26 to a peak of 938 million metric tons, before easing to 905 million metric tons by 2030-31.
Global steel demand is projected to rise gradually through 2031, driven primarily by India, other Asian economies, and the Middle East, while China's steel consumption and production are expected to edge lower over the same period. As a result, global iron ore trade is forecast to remain broadly stable, though trade flows are set to shift. China's iron ore imports are projected to decline at an average annual rate of 1.8%, while imports by India and other Asian countries are expected to increase. On the supply side, Australia is expected to remain the largest exporter, although shipments from Brazil and African producers-particularly Guinea-are forecast to rise steadily.
Australia's iron ore export volumes are expected to peak over the next two years as production ramps up at Fortescue's Iron Bridge, Mineral Resources' Onslow, and BHP's South Flank. Export volumes are then projected to ease slightly in the latter part of the outlook period, weighed by weakening Chinese demand and expanding African supply.
Australian iron ore production is forecast to increase from 972 million metric tons in 2025-26 to just over 1 billion metric tons during 2026-29, before declining to 958 million metric tons by 2030-31. Exports are projected to rise from 926 million metric tons in 2025-26 to a peak of 938 million metric tons, before easing to 905 million metric tons by 2030-31.
