ICSG: global copper surplus to more than triple by 2027
2026-10-15 10:29:13 [Print]
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts the global refined copper surplus will more than triple by 2027, as smelter output rebounds at a faster pace than consumption.
ICSG released the forecast on Wednesday following its meetings in Lisbon, Portugal, projecting a market surplus of 368,000 tonnes in 2027, rising from 104,000 tonnes in the current year. The 2026 estimate has been lifted slightly from the April projection of 96,000 tonnes, while the 2027 outlook remains unchanged.
The expanding surplus stems from a recovery in refined copper output, after copper concentrate shortages curbed smelter production this year. The projection also reveals a divergence between growing processing capacity and relatively modest consumption gains, notwithstanding demand support from electrification, AI and data centre build-outs.
Global refined copper output is set to edge up by just 0.4% in 2026 before jumping 3.4% in 2027. The upturn will be driven by smelter and refinery ramp-ups in Indonesia, India and the EU, alongside improved operational rates in Chile and higher output from scrap copper.
World copper mine production is projected to rise 1.3% this year, revised down from the April estimate of 1.6%, on downgrades for output in Chile, China and Indonesia.
Production growth will be underpinned by ramp-ups at Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi, Indonesia's Batu Hijau and Russia's Malmyz mines, plus expansions at China's Julong and Russia's Svyatogor operations. Higher volumes from Peru's Antamina and processing of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panama are also contributing to supply gains.
ICSG expects mine production growth to accelerate to 3.1% in 2027, supported by operational recoveries in Indonesia and the DRC, improved output in Chile and Zambia, and continued ramp-up of newly commissioned capacity.
ICSG released the forecast on Wednesday following its meetings in Lisbon, Portugal, projecting a market surplus of 368,000 tonnes in 2027, rising from 104,000 tonnes in the current year. The 2026 estimate has been lifted slightly from the April projection of 96,000 tonnes, while the 2027 outlook remains unchanged.
The expanding surplus stems from a recovery in refined copper output, after copper concentrate shortages curbed smelter production this year. The projection also reveals a divergence between growing processing capacity and relatively modest consumption gains, notwithstanding demand support from electrification, AI and data centre build-outs.
Global refined copper output is set to edge up by just 0.4% in 2026 before jumping 3.4% in 2027. The upturn will be driven by smelter and refinery ramp-ups in Indonesia, India and the EU, alongside improved operational rates in Chile and higher output from scrap copper.
World copper mine production is projected to rise 1.3% this year, revised down from the April estimate of 1.6%, on downgrades for output in Chile, China and Indonesia.
Production growth will be underpinned by ramp-ups at Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi, Indonesia's Batu Hijau and Russia's Malmyz mines, plus expansions at China's Julong and Russia's Svyatogor operations. Higher volumes from Peru's Antamina and processing of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panama are also contributing to supply gains.
ICSG expects mine production growth to accelerate to 3.1% in 2027, supported by operational recoveries in Indonesia and the DRC, improved output in Chile and Zambia, and continued ramp-up of newly commissioned capacity.
Copper Scrap Wire 99%min Delivered China
Unit:RMB/mt
China's copper rod producers' operating rate statistics by province by month
Unit: %
