Chile trims copper output forecast and lifts price outlook
2026-05-20 16:02:43 [Print]
Chile, the world's largest copper supplier, has cut its production forecasts for this year and next, reinforcing the tight global supply picture that has pushed prices close to record highs. The state copper commission Cochilco said in its quarterly outlook that Chilean output is expected to fall 2% to 5.3 million metric tons this year, weighed down by declining ore grades, maintenance and operational constraints, before recovering 4% to about 5.5 million tons in 2027. The agency had previously forecast 5.6 million tons for this year and 5.97 million tons for next year.
The reduced guidance from a country that accounts for almost a quarter of the world's mined copper adds further support to a market already lifted by supply disruptions at major mines and accelerating demand from data centres and the energy transition. Cochilco raised its average copper price forecast for this year to $5.55 a pound from a previous estimate of $4.95; copper is currently trading above $6 a pound in New York.
Globally, refined copper demand is expected to grow 1.5% this year to 28.2 million tons and 2.3% in 2027 to 28.8 million tons, with China remaining the main consumption driver despite weakness in its property market. Cochilco said the refined copper market would stay tight, projecting a small surplus of 12,000 tons in 2026 after last year's estimated deficit of 124,000 tons.
The reduced guidance from a country that accounts for almost a quarter of the world's mined copper adds further support to a market already lifted by supply disruptions at major mines and accelerating demand from data centres and the energy transition. Cochilco raised its average copper price forecast for this year to $5.55 a pound from a previous estimate of $4.95; copper is currently trading above $6 a pound in New York.
Globally, refined copper demand is expected to grow 1.5% this year to 28.2 million tons and 2.3% in 2027 to 28.8 million tons, with China remaining the main consumption driver despite weakness in its property market. Cochilco said the refined copper market would stay tight, projecting a small surplus of 12,000 tons in 2026 after last year's estimated deficit of 124,000 tons.

