Executive Interviews

Asian Metal: Welcome, Ms. Tian, to our interview. To begin with, could you please give us a brief introduction of your company?

Ms. Tian: Xiamen China-lead is a leading lead trader in Guangdong and Fujian provinces. From 2002 to 2008, the company’s lead ingot business primarily focused on exports to Europe, the United States, and Taiwan. Since 2008, we have shifted our focus to the domestic market. We are a participant in Asian Metal’s lead pricing mechanism, and we are recognized as a Class A taxpayer and a model enterprise of integrity by Xiamen City. I have been deeply engaged in the lead industry for many years, representing China at the United Nations Lead and Zinc Conference and successfully forecasting the sharp rise in lead ingot prices for 2024 at the Bo'ao International Lead and Zinc Conference in 2023. Currently, our company maintains long-term partnerships with nearly one hundred lead smelters and lead-acid battery manufacturers. Our self-owned “ChinaLead” brand lead ingots have earned strong recognition for their high quality and cost-effectiveness. Lead-acid batteries are widely used in internal combustion vehicles, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, motorcycles, electric vehicles, electric bicycles, tricycles, as well as in energy storage. Lead is also extensively applied in bullets, shipping, nuclear facilities, nuclear power plants, and medical infrastructure. As the only metal capable of effectively shielding against nuclear radiation, lead carries significant strategic value. With the implementation of China’s “trade-in” policy, both the automotive and electric bicycle sectors are poised to benefit greatly, presenting promising prospects. We look forward to deepening cooperation with upstream and downstream partners across the industry chain to create greater value together.

Asian Metal: What advantages does your company hold in the lead ingot sector?

Ms. Tian: We have specialized in the lead industry for 23 years, during which we have built a solid reputation and extensive connections. Our supply bases are spread across Henan, Hunan, Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Jiangxi, enabling us to flexibly match customer needs and supply lead ingots from multiple registered brands. Our proprietary “ChinaLead” brand lead ingots are widely recognized for their superior quality. In addition, our “consultative sales” model provides customers with timely fundamental industry information, while also integrating macroeconomic and technical analysis. This enables us to forecast short-term as well as medium- to long-term trends, helping customers make informed procurement decisions and significantly reduce costs.

Asian Metal: How was China’s lead ingot import and export performance in the first half of this year? What is your outlook after September?

Ms. Tian: According to customs data, from January to June 2025, China exported 23,900 tons of refined lead and imported 16,800 tons, resulting in net exports of 7,092 tons. During the same period, cumulative imports of lead ingots reached 75,000 tons, while exports were 34,700 tons, leading to net imports of 40,300 tons.

Imports have mainly consisted of secondary lead, intended to offset the shortage of domestic recycled lead feedstock. However, the volumes are limited and insufficient to significantly ease supply-demand imbalances. It is worth noting that Kazakhstan has announced a ban on lead ingot exports for the remainder of 2025 in order to meet its domestic military and strategic reserve needs. This involves an output of approximately 55,000 tons and will further tighten the global market. Considering the issue of impurities in refined lead, China’s effective import volume is limited. Therefore, we expect that after September, imports will still mainly consist of small quantities of secondary lead, with large-scale net imports of refined lead remaining unlikely. Currently, the SHFE/LME ratio is close to the threshold for chance for export, so there may be some opportunities for refined lead exports in the second half of the year, with the LME lead price target at USD2,350/ton.

Asian Metal: Do you expect lead-acid battery demand to increase after September?

Ms. Tian: Yes, I believe demand for lead-acid batteries will continue to rise after September, mainly due to the following factors. First, lead consumption traditionally peaks from September to the following March; Second, China’s “trade-in” policy for electric bicycles and automobiles is the strongest driver of demand growth this year. After that, the energy storage sector has been performing strongly, with large enterprises maintaining high capacity utilization and robust orders, suggesting continued growth in the second half of the year. Last but not least, under high-temperature conditions, lithium batteries are prone to thermal runaway and even explosion, whereas lead-acid batteries offer greater safety and stability. In the longer term, China has issued policies to phase out substandard lithium battery-powered electric bicycles and provide subsidies under the trade-in scheme, which will drive large-scale replacement with lead-acid electric bicycles. Over the next two years, millions of electric bicycles are expected to undergo replacement, providing substantial support for lead consumption. It is estimated that additional lead demand may reach 700,000–800,000 tons, accounting for nearly 10% of China’s total production in 2024. Meanwhile, public campaigns promoting safe electricity usage and battery knowledge are also underway. If such efforts and policy implementation are effective, China’s total lead consumption in 2025 could grow by 5%–10%.

Asian Metal: In recent years, many secondary lead producers have faced prolonged losses. In your view, how can this situation be improved?

Ms. Tian: Profitability in secondary lead production largely depends on price fluctuations. At present, costs are already above RMB17,500/ton. If lead prices remain in the range of RMB16,000–18,000/ton, secondary lead producers are almost certain to incur losses. To address this, consensus must be reached across upstream and downstream sectors to maintain a reasonable price range of RMB17,000–19,000/ton. At the same time, the entire industry should actively promote the “Trade-In, Safe China” initiative to stimulate downstream demand and boost battery plant operating rates. As lead prices recover, both smelters and secondary lead producers will be able to achieve reasonable profitability.

Asian Metal: Given the current weak supply and demand, what is your outlook for lead prices after September?

Ms. Tian: I expect lead prices to remain in the range of RMB17,000–19,000/ton after September, with a gradual upward trend. On the supply-demand side, in the first half of this year, China’s lead supply fell by 1.71% year-on-year, while demand increased due to the trade-in policy and the expansion of the energy storage sector. The net increase in demand has already exceeded 50,000 tons. Internationally, Kazakhstan’s ban on lead ingot exports will further tighten global supply. Domestically, operating rates at lead-acid battery plants are higher than during the same period last year, while Shanghai inventories are lower year-on-year, both of which signal tighter market conditions. From a technical perspective, LME lead prices are also expected to break through to USD2,350/ton. Overall, in the second half of the year, lead prices will likely remain on a steady upward trajectory, supported by both demand growth and cost factors.

Asian Metal: Does your company have any new development plans for the future?

Ms. Tian: At present, the company has no new diversification plans. We will continue to focus on the lead industry, advance steadily, and further deepen our expertise in our core business.

Asian Metal: Thank you, Ms. Tian, for your valuable insights. We look forward to seeing your company achieve even greater success in the industry.

Ms. Tian: Thank you for this interview, and I wish Asian Metal continued prosperity.