Executive Interviews

Asian Metal: Hello Brendan, thank you for accepting Asian Metal’s interview. Please introduce your company and provide a brief overview of the North Stanmore Heavy Rare Earth Element project.

Brendan: Thanks for having me. Victory Metals Limited is an ASX-listed company focused on exploring and developing Australia’s largest clay-hosted heavy rare earth element project, North Stanmore. Located in Western Australia, the project hosts significant concentrations of heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium, alongside other critical minerals like scandium and hafnium. Our goal is to develop a sustainable and cost-effective processing facility to produce high-value rare earth products, meeting the growing global demand, particularly for clean technologies and defense applications.

Asian Metal: What do you consider to be the biggest strength of the project? When do you plan to start production, and what is your expected annual output of mixed rare earth carbonate?

Brendan: The North Stanmore project’s biggest strength lies in its unique geological composition, which allows for higher payability than other deposits while avoiding issues related to radioactivity. This gives us a distinctive environmental advantage. We are currently finalizing our Scoping Study, after which we will proceed with the feasibility study and pilot plant design. Our target production start date is 2028. Initially, we expect to process approximately 4 million tonnes per annum of heavy rare earth-enriched material, producing substantial volumes of high-quality mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC), with scalability potential as we refine and expand our processing methods.

Asian Metal: I noticed that you signed an MOU with Sumitomo Corporation to supply them with 30% of your mixed rare earth carbonate. Who are your target customers for the remaining portion of your products? Can you share insights on the cost of your mixed rare earth carbonate?

Brendan: Yes, we are very excited about our MOU with Sumitomo, a world-class partner. This agreement underscores the quality and strategic importance of our rare earth products. For the remaining 70% of our MREC, we are targeting a diverse range of customers, including global OEMs in the automotive, renewable energy, and defense sectors. We are actively engaging with other large industrial players and government entities that recognize the strategic value of our heavy rare earths. We aim to offer competitive pricing aligned with global market trends while maintaining strong margins. More details on this will be available in our upcoming Scoping Study.

Asian Metal: The prices for dysprosium oxide (99.5% min) and terbium oxide (99.99% min) have declined to USD 220-225/kg and USD 910-925/kg, respectively, marking decreases of 40.0% and 14.7% since the beginning of the year. How do you foresee price trends in the next 1-2 years?

Brendan: While prices for dysprosium and terbium have been volatile this year, I believe the current pricing does not accurately reflect actual supply-demand dynamics. Market manipulation, particularly due to China’s dominance in the sector, distorts price signals. If I were to attempt to purchase large volumes of dysprosium and terbium today, it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to secure such quantities at quoted prices. I expect dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices to increase by approximately 40% in the next two years and potentially double by 2030—or even more.

Asian Metal: Which industries do you see as the major consumers of heavy rare earths?

Brendan: The primary industries utilizing heavy rare earths will continue to be electric vehicles, wind turbines, and renewable energy technologies. Additionally, demand from the defense sector is increasing, especially for advanced electronics, satellites, and military hardware that require high-performance magnets and components. The miniaturization of electronics will also contribute to growing demand for heavy rare earths in consumer electronics.

Asian Metal: The new energy vehicle (NEV) industry is growing rapidly in China. How has the NEV market in Australia evolved over the past 2-3 years?

Brendan: EV sales in Australia have not kept pace with Europe, but the government is aiming for over 50% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030. With increasing support from both local and federal governments, various incentives, and the declining cost of lithium-ion batteries, I believe this goal is achievable.

Asian Metal: What is your outlook for the global NEV industry in 2025?

Brendan: By 2025, the global NEV industry is expected to accelerate significantly. Demand for EVs will continue to rise, particularly in Europe, China, and North America, as governments push aggressive emissions reduction targets. Improved battery technology and scaled-up production will drive costs down, further increasing adoption and boosting demand for rare earth materials such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.

Asian Metal: What is your prediction for the NEV market over the next 3-5 years?

Brendan: Over the next 3-5 years, NEV adoption will surge as charging infrastructure expands and government incentives make the transition easier. NEVs could account for up to a third of all vehicle sales globally. Demand for rare earths will increase dramatically. Supply constraints for dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide will persist due to growing demand from the EV, wind energy, and consumer electronics sectors. China will likely maintain dominance in the supply chain, but efforts in Australia, the US, and Japan to develop alternative sources are gaining momentum. The NdFeB magnet market, valued at approximately USD 14 billion in 2023, is expected to exceed USD 22 billion by 2028.

Asian Metal: Which areas do you expect to drive new growth for NdFeB magnets in the coming 3-5 years?

Brendan: Besides electric vehicles, I anticipate significant growth in wind energy, particularly offshore wind farms, where demand for high-performance magnets is increasing at a projected CAGR of around 10%. Other emerging areas include space exploration, robotics, and advanced defense technologies.

Asian Metal: From your perspective, what role does Australia play in the global rare earths market?

Brendan: Australia is already home to the world’s largest hard rock heavy rare earth project, operated by Lynas, and emerging projects like Victory's North Stanmore further strengthen our position as a global leader. North Stanmore is Australia’s largest heavy rare earth clay project, and recent drilling has identified a 13.5 km strike of heavy rare earth mineralization. With favorable environmental conditions and a low-rainfall region that simplifies tailings management, we have a significant advantage over competitors. Western Australia remains one of the most stable and mining-friendly jurisdictions in the world, making it an ideal location for rare earth production.

Asian Metal: Thank you for sharing your insights. I wish you continued success!

Brendan: Thank you for the opportunity. We are excited about Victory Metals' potential to become a key supplier of heavy rare earth elements.