AM Insight: Ebb tide only sees the real gold, polysilicon enterprises experience ordeal
2012-12-03 11:26:37 [Print]
BEIJING (Asian Metal) 30 Nov 12 – Chinese polysilicon market continued to be sluggish in the recent days, and the trading volume remained small in the spot market. Most of the polysilicon market participants hold pessimistic attitudes toward the future market under the unfavorable global solar market. The downstream consumers are inactive in purchasing materials. The polysilicon enterprises have to struggle against adversity.
Currently, import polysilicon continues to flood into Chinese market. Moreover, the import polysilicon prices are much lower than those of the domestic polysilicon, which are around USD15/kg or even lower. It is less than the production cost for Chinese polysilicon plants. Even if the domestic polysilicon plants repeatedly cut prices, it is still unable to compare with import polysilicon. Now, nearly 90-95% polysilicon plants are out of production in China, but because each plant hold inventories in relatively large quantities and the downstream demand continues to be weak, the polysilicon market still sees surplus inventory.
The polysilicon production capacity expanded rapidly in the global market in 2012. According to the relevant data, the global polysilicon production capacity increases to 238,900 tons in 2012, which increased by around 54.8% compared with that of 2011. Furthermore, the domestic polysilicon production capacity will increase to 103,700 tons this year, up by around 170.75% compared to last year. In fact, part of the production has been the gradual release in the second half of 2011; therefore, the polysilicon prices continuing to fall with soft demand. Owing to the current high inventories and low consumption, the polysilicon market will keep running slowly in both domestic and oversea markets.
Import polysilicon swarms into Chinese market with relatively low prices, and this is just one of the obstacles to the development of the domestic solar industry. The United States and the European Union have initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Chinese solar products gradually. This is another hinder the smooth development of the domestic solar market.
The United States has been finalized anti-dumping and countervailing investigation on Chinese solar products. The Commerce Department said in a preliminary ruling that it would levy a duty of 31% to about 60 Chinese firms, including Suntech, the world’s largest solar-panel maker. All other Chinese exporters of solar cells face a tariff of 250%. In March the Commerce Department levied a modest 2.9% to 4.7% tariff on Chinese solar-panel imports after finding that the Chinese government provided illegal subsidies for its industry. The European Union has initiated the "double-anti" investigation on Chinese solar products; the final results will be released early next year.
If the "double-anti" investigation has been established, what would happen for both European Union and China? If China wins and the EU will not impose high tariffs, but may set other obstacles, such as improving the access standard for Chinese solar products, and so on. However, if China loses, maybe China will lose the European market. China will face serious challenges as both the raw materials and the downstream products depend on the overseas market. Owing to the crisis from the oversea market, many Chinese solar enterprises have invested in the domestic distributed power stations and intended to develop domestic PV industry.
The eighteenth National Congress of the CPC was closed, and many new policies for the Chinese solar market will be published gradually. Before the meeting, some local governments have published many policies to support local solar companies. However, most of the polysilicon market participants said the support has not yet been implemented, so the domestic solar enterprises still face difficulties in a short time. According to the relevant data, the plans for the domestic installed capacity continue to increase. The government intends to support the development of the domestic solar industry. Many provinces, like Jiangsu, have launched the "Golden Sun" project, and local polysilicon enterprises have joined the investment. But even more power stations have been built, could Chinese polysilicon enterprises turn better? If the power stations do not achieve the grid, power supply range is still limited and the solar enterprises still cannot have more profit. The polysilicon enterprises will continue struggling to survive.
The U.S. new president has generated, and Obama re-election will bring trade-related aspects of the United States and China, and the impact is unclear. Furthermore, European Union begins to set anti-dumping investigation on Chinese solar products, and it is likely for the domestic solar market to suffer new challenges. Chinese solar market is crumbling now, and the domestic polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce or stop production. Chinese polysilicon enterprises must experience some difficulties, and become the final winner.
Currently, import polysilicon continues to flood into Chinese market. Moreover, the import polysilicon prices are much lower than those of the domestic polysilicon, which are around USD15/kg or even lower. It is less than the production cost for Chinese polysilicon plants. Even if the domestic polysilicon plants repeatedly cut prices, it is still unable to compare with import polysilicon. Now, nearly 90-95% polysilicon plants are out of production in China, but because each plant hold inventories in relatively large quantities and the downstream demand continues to be weak, the polysilicon market still sees surplus inventory.
The polysilicon production capacity expanded rapidly in the global market in 2012. According to the relevant data, the global polysilicon production capacity increases to 238,900 tons in 2012, which increased by around 54.8% compared with that of 2011. Furthermore, the domestic polysilicon production capacity will increase to 103,700 tons this year, up by around 170.75% compared to last year. In fact, part of the production has been the gradual release in the second half of 2011; therefore, the polysilicon prices continuing to fall with soft demand. Owing to the current high inventories and low consumption, the polysilicon market will keep running slowly in both domestic and oversea markets.
Import polysilicon swarms into Chinese market with relatively low prices, and this is just one of the obstacles to the development of the domestic solar industry. The United States and the European Union have initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Chinese solar products gradually. This is another hinder the smooth development of the domestic solar market.
The United States has been finalized anti-dumping and countervailing investigation on Chinese solar products. The Commerce Department said in a preliminary ruling that it would levy a duty of 31% to about 60 Chinese firms, including Suntech, the world’s largest solar-panel maker. All other Chinese exporters of solar cells face a tariff of 250%. In March the Commerce Department levied a modest 2.9% to 4.7% tariff on Chinese solar-panel imports after finding that the Chinese government provided illegal subsidies for its industry. The European Union has initiated the "double-anti" investigation on Chinese solar products; the final results will be released early next year.
If the "double-anti" investigation has been established, what would happen for both European Union and China? If China wins and the EU will not impose high tariffs, but may set other obstacles, such as improving the access standard for Chinese solar products, and so on. However, if China loses, maybe China will lose the European market. China will face serious challenges as both the raw materials and the downstream products depend on the overseas market. Owing to the crisis from the oversea market, many Chinese solar enterprises have invested in the domestic distributed power stations and intended to develop domestic PV industry.
The eighteenth National Congress of the CPC was closed, and many new policies for the Chinese solar market will be published gradually. Before the meeting, some local governments have published many policies to support local solar companies. However, most of the polysilicon market participants said the support has not yet been implemented, so the domestic solar enterprises still face difficulties in a short time. According to the relevant data, the plans for the domestic installed capacity continue to increase. The government intends to support the development of the domestic solar industry. Many provinces, like Jiangsu, have launched the "Golden Sun" project, and local polysilicon enterprises have joined the investment. But even more power stations have been built, could Chinese polysilicon enterprises turn better? If the power stations do not achieve the grid, power supply range is still limited and the solar enterprises still cannot have more profit. The polysilicon enterprises will continue struggling to survive.
The U.S. new president has generated, and Obama re-election will bring trade-related aspects of the United States and China, and the impact is unclear. Furthermore, European Union begins to set anti-dumping investigation on Chinese solar products, and it is likely for the domestic solar market to suffer new challenges. Chinese solar market is crumbling now, and the domestic polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce or stop production. Chinese polysilicon enterprises must experience some difficulties, and become the final winner.
Polysilicon 6N Delivered China
Unit:RMB/kg
China silicon metal producers' number MoM output increase statistics by province by month
Unit: pcs
