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  • 2013 Annual Report on Aluminum Market

    2014-04-18 18:33:26   【Print】
    The following is a brief synopsis of the report. Your access is restricted as it is a subscription based service.
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    Contents
    Abstract 1
    1 Macro overview 1
    1.1 International macro overview 1
    1.1.1 Review of QE in US 1
    1.1. 2 US announces intention to quit QE 1
    1.1.3 EU economies continue to struggle 2
    1.1.4 Uncertainty around Japanese quantitative easing and consumption tax increase 2
    1.1.5 Consistency of strong US dollar uncertain 2
    1.2 Chinese domestic macro-economic overview 3
    1.2.1 Chinese economic growth flat 3
    1.2.2 Reform deepens, economic growth fluctuates slightly in 2014 3
    2 Distribution and grades of bauxite 4
    2.1 Global distribution and grades of bauxite 4
    2.2 Distribution and grades of bauxite in Australia 5
    2.3 Distribution and grade for Indonesian bauxite 5
    2.4 Distribution and grade for Indian bauxite 6
    3 Market review 6
    3.1 Aluminum ingot market 6
    3.1.1 Chinese aluminum ingot market 6
    3.1.2 LME aluminum price and inventories 7
    3.2 Alumina market 9
    3.2.1 Analysis for the alumina price in spot market 9
    3.2.2 Analysis for the alumina price of long-term contract 9
    3.3 Aluminum hydroxide market 11
    3.4 Aluminum alloy market 11
    3.4.Asian Metal Copyright4.Asian Metal Copyright1 Secondary aluminum alloy ingot price down by 3.14% in 2013 11
    3.4.2 A356 aluminum alloy ingot price down to record low 12
    3.5 Chinese domestic aluminum fluoride market 13
    3.6 Aluminum fluoride export market 13
    3.7 Chinese carbon anode market 14
    3.8 Carbon cathode market 15
    3.9 Cryolite market 15
    3.10 Fluorspar market 16
    4 Output data analysis 16
    4.1 Primary aluminum output 16
    4.1.1 World primary aluminum output 16
    4.1.Asian Metal Copyright2 A356 aluminum alloy ingot price down to record low 12 3.Asian Metal Copyright1.Asian Metal Copyright9 million tons of alumina capacity on stream in 2014 30 4.Asian Metal Copyright1 World primary aluminum output up by 4.01% year-on-year in 2013 16
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright1.2 Primary aluminum production by continent 17
    4.2.2 Primary aluminum output in China 18
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.1 The proportion of Chinese primary aluminum production grows continuously 18
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright5 million tons of new alumina capacity under construction or plan to build in 2014 30 4.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright4.Asian Metal Copyright2 CAGR of Chinese primary aluminum production about 16.79% from 2001 to 2013 19
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.3 Distribution of Chinese primary aluminum production 20
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright1.Asian Metal Copyright2.4 Data on capacity changes 21
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright1.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright3 Top4 Chinese alumina importers in 2013 52 5.Asian Metal Copyright4.Asian Metal Copyright1.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese primary aluminum capacity sees an increase of 5.06 million tonnes per annum in 2013 21
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese economic growth flat 3 1.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright3 EU economies continue to struggle 2 1.Asian Metal Copyright4.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2 Chinese build new primary aluminum capacity of 6.24 million tonnes in 2013 22
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright1 Aluminum ingot price will struggle to rebound 65 7.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2 Chinese bauxite imports from Australia 2007-2013 43 5.Asian Metal Copyright4.3 805,000tpy of Chinese aluminum capacity shut down in 2013 23
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright3 Distribution of Chinese primary aluminum production 20 4.Asian Metal Copyright4.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright4 Chinese aluminum smelters halt capacity of 2.25 million tonnes per annum in 2013 24
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese alumina imports from Australia down by 23.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright3% YOY in 2013 55 5.Asian Metal Copyright4.5 Capacity expansion plans for 2014 25
    4.2 Alumina output 25
    4.2.1 Global alumina production 2004-2013 25
    4.2.2 China’s alumina production 26
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright94% YOY 32 4.Asian Metal Copyright2.1 China’s alumina production 2004-2013 26
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright25% YOY 50 5.Asian Metal Copyright2.2 China’s alumina production in 2013 26
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright 2 US announces intention to quit QE 1 1.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese alumina production in Shanxi up by 25.96% YOY in 2013 27
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright7 Chinese carbon anode market 14 3.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.2 Alumina production in Henan stable in 2013 27
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright3 Alumina production in Shandong down by 3.2% YOY in 2013 27
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright4 Top ten Chinese aluminum alloy exporters in 2013 59 5.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese alumina imports from Australia down by 23.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright39% 28 4.Asian Metal Copyright4 Alumina production in Inner Mongolia increased by 72.7% YOY in 2013 28
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright1.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright1.Asian Metal Copyright2.5 Alumina production in Southwest China increased 28
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright1.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright3 Operating rate of Chinese alumina refineries in 2013 is 80.39% 28
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright2 Analysis for imports of alumina 49 5.Asian Metal Copyright2.4 New alumina capacity in China 29
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright4.Asian Metal Copyright4 Chinese bauxite imports 2005-2013 42 5.Asian Metal Copyright1 China has 6.2 million tons of alumina capacity came on stream in 2013 29
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright4.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright2 Chinese commercial carbon anode output reaches 5,325,200t in 2013 35 4.Asian Metal Copyright4.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese aluminum alloy output up by 21.Asian Metal Copyright2 China will have 3.9 million tons of alumina capacity on stream in 2014 30
    4.2.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese aluminum fluoride capacities up by 22.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright7% YOY in 2013 49 5.Asian Metal Copyright4.Asian Metal Copyright3 Aluminum fluoride market forecast 66 7.Asian Metal Copyright3 China has 15.5 million tons of new alumina capacity under construction or plan to build in 2014 30
    4.3 Aluminum fluoride output 31
    4.3.Asian Metal Copyright5 Aluminum alloy exports 57 5.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese aluminum fluoride capacities up by 22.1% YOY in 2013 31
    4.3.Asian Metal Copyright1 World primary aluminum output 16 4.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright3.Asian Metal Copyright1 Output in Shandong up by 13.94% YOY 32
    4.3.3 Chinese aluminum fluoride new capacities to reach 250,000tpy in 2014 33
    4.4 Carbon anode output 34
    4.4.1 Chinese commercial carbon anode capacity totals 5,765,700tpy in 2013 34
    4.4.2 Chinese commercial carbon anode output reaches 5,325,200t in 2013 35
    4.4.3 New Chinese carbon anode capacity reaches 1,610,000tpy in 2014 36
    4.5 Aluminum alloy 37
    4.5.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese aluminum alloy output up by 21.82% YOY in 2013 37
    4.5.2 Operating rates of Chinese secondary aluminum alloy plants in 2013 38
    4.6 Aluminum semi-products output 39
    5 Import and export data analysis 40
    5.1 Analysis for imports of bauxite 40
    5.1.1 Chinese bauxite imports in 2013 40
    5.1.2 Chinese bauxite import resources in 2013 40
    5.1.3 Chinese bauxite imports by origin in 2013 42
    5.1.4 Chinese bauxite imports 2005-2013 42
    5.1.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright4.1 Chinese bauxite imports from Indonesia 2005-2013 43
    5.1.Asian Metal Copyright3 EU economies continue to struggle 2 1.Asian Metal Copyright4.2 Chinese bauxite imports from Australia 2007-2013 43
    5.1.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright4.3 Chinese bauxite imports from India 2007-2013 44
    5.1.5 Chinese bauxite import prices from Indonesia, Australia and India 2013 44
    5.1.Asian Metal Copyright1.Asian Metal Copyright5.1 Bauxite import prices fluctuate in upward trend 2011-2013 45
    5.1.Asian Metal Copyright1.Asian Metal Copyright5.2 Bauxite prices from Guinea and Brazil remain high 46
    5.1.6 Cost performance of mainstream imported bauxite 46
    5.1.7 Chinese demand for imported bauxite 47
    5.1.Asian Metal Copyright1 Aluminum ingot price will struggle to rebound 65 7.Asian Metal Copyright7.1 Analysis of imported bauxite demand in Shandong, China 2011-2013 48
    5.1.8 Chinese imported bauxite stocks 48
    5.2 Analysis for imports of alumina 49
    5.2.1 Chinese alumina imports 2005-2013 49
    5.2.Asian Metal Copyright4 Top ten Chinese aluminum alloy exporters in 2013 59 5.Asian Metal Copyright2 Chinese alumina imports down by 23.7% YOY in 2013 49
    5.2.Asian Metal Copyright2 China’s alumina production 26 4.Asian Metal Copyright2.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese primary aluminum capacity sees an increase of 5.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese alumina imports from Australia down by 23.25% YOY 50
    5.2.Asian Metal Copyright4 Uncertainty around Japanese quantitative easing and consumption tax increase 2 1.Asian Metal Copyright2.2 China imported 114,806t of Vietnam alumina in 2013 51
    5.2.3 Top4 Chinese alumina importers in 2013 52
    5.3 Aluminum scrap imports 53
    5.3.1 Chinese aluminum scrap imports shrink during past three years 53
    5.3.2 The origins of Chinese aluminum scraps imports 54
    5.3.3 Top ten Chinese aluminum scraps importers in 2013 55
    5.4 Aluminum semi-products exports 55
    5.4.Asian Metal Copyright9% YOY in 2013 63 6.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese aluminum semi-products exports up by 8.3% YOY in 2013 55
    5.4.Asian Metal Copyright3 Aluminum fluoride market forecast 66 7.Asian Metal Copyright2 Compound annual growth rate of Chinese aluminum semi-products exports reaches 29.67% 56
    5.5 Aluminum alloy exports 57
    5.5.Asian Metal Copyright3 Operating rate of Chinese alumina refineries in 2013 is 80.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese aluminum alloy exports down by 9.77% YOY in 2013 57
    5.5.2 Chinese aluminum alloy exports shrink over past two years 57
    5.5.3 Chinese aluminum alloy exports to Japan 58
    5.5.4 Top ten Chinese aluminum alloy exporters in 2013 59
    5.6 Aluminum fluoride export 59
    5.6.Asian Metal Copyright1 Review of QE in US 1 1.Asian Metal Copyright1 Chinese aluminum fluoride exports up by 27.7% YOY in 2013 59
    5.6.2 Chinese carbon anode exports reach 1,385,000t in 2013 61
    6 Analysis of end-demand 63
    6.1 Chinese motor sales up by 13.9% YOY in 2013 63
    6.2 Data on China’s real estate 64
    7 Outlook for 2014 65
    7.1 Aluminum ingot price will struggle to rebound 65
    7.2 Outlook for alumina price trend 66
    7.3 Aluminum fluoride market forecast 66
    7.4 Carbon anode market forecast 66

    Picture 1 Growth rate of China’s GDP during 2007-2013 3
    Picture 2 Distribution of bauxite reserves in each continent 4
    Picture 3 Aluminum Ingot price in Chinese market during 2013 (RMB/t) 7
    Picture 4 The trend of LME aluminum cash price during 2013 (USD/t) 8
    Picture 5 LME aluminum inventories during 2013 (tonnes) 8
    Picture 6 Chinese alumina price in spot market in 2013 9
    Picture 7 Chinese spot and contract price in 2013 10
    Picture 8 Chalco alumina offers in 2013 10
    Picture 9 Chinese alumina hydroxide price movements in 2013 11
    Picture 10 The trend of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices in 2013 on the Chinese market (RMB/t) 12
    Picture 11 The trend of A356 aluminum alloy ingot prices in 2013 on the Chinese market (RMB/t) 12
    Picture 12 Chinese aluminum fluoride price movements in 2013 13
    Picture 13 Chinese aluminum fluoride export price movements in 2013 14
    Picture 14 Chinese carbon anode price movements in 2013 15
    Picture 15 Global primary aluminum production 17
    Picture 16 Primary aluminum output by continent 17
    Picture 17 Comparison of Chinese and global primary aluminum production 19
    Picture 18 Chinese primary aluminum output during 2013 19
    Picture 19 China's annual primary aluminum output from 2001 to 2013 20
    Picture 20 The distribution of Chinese aluminum smelting capacity in Q4 2013 22
    Picture 21 Primary aluminum expansion in China in 2013 22
    Picture 22 Primary aluminum capacity shut down by region in China in 2013 23
    Picture 23 Aluminum production reductions from Jan-Dec in 2013 24
    Picture 24 Distrubution of production reductions in China in 2013 24
    Picture 25 Global alumina production 2004-2013 25
    Picture 26 China’s alumina production 2004-2013 26
    Picture 27 China’s alumina production in 2013 27
    Picture 28 Chinese aluminum fluoride capacity by region 2013 31
    Picture 29 Chinese aluminum fluoride output 2013 32
    Picture 30 Chinese aluminum fluoride output by region 2012-2013 33
    Picture 31 Chinese new aluminum fluoride capacities by region 2014 33
    Picture 32 Chinese carbon anode capacity by region 2013 35
    Picture 33 Chinese commercial carbon anode output 2013 35
    Picture 34 Chinese commercial carbon anode output by region 2013 36
    Picture 35 Chinese aluminum alloy outputs from 2002-2013 37
    Picture 36 Operating rate of Chinese secondary aluminum alloy plants in 2013 38
    Picture 37 Aluminum semi-products output in China from 2001-2013 39
    Picture 38 Chinese bauxite imports in 2013 40
    Picture 39 Chinese bauxite imports by origins 2013 41
    Picture 40 Chinese bauxite import by origin in 2013 42
    Picture 41 Chinese bauxite imports 2005-2013 43
    Picture 42 Chinese bauxite imports from Indonesia 2005-2013 43
    Picture 43 Chinese bauxite imports from Australia 2007-2013 44
    Picture 44 Chinese bauxite imports from India 2007-2013 44
    Picture 45 The CIF prices for Indonesia, Australia and India in 2013 45
    Picture 46 Chinese bauxite import prices 2011-2013 46
    Picture 47 Demand distribution of imported bauxite in China 47
    Picture 48 Demand for imported bauxite in Shandong province 2011-2013 48
    Picture 49 Chinese alumina imports 2005-2013 49
    Picture 50 Chinese alumina imports in 2013 50
    Picture 51 Chinese alumina imports from Australia in 2013 51
    Picture 52 Chinese alumina imports from Vietnam in 2013 51
    Picture 53 Top4 Chinese alumina importers in 2013 52
    Picture 54 Major Chinese alumina importers price in 2013 53
    Picture 55 Chinese aluminum scraps imports from 2006-2013 53
    Picture 56 Chinese aluminum scraps imports in 2012 and 2013 54
    Picture 57 The price for aluminum scraps imported by China from US in 2012 and 2013 54
    Picture 58 Chinese aluminum semi-products exports in 2013 56
    Picture 59 Chinese aluminum semi-products exports from 2001-2013 56
    Picture 60 Chinese aluminum alloy exports in 2013 57
    Picture 61 Chinese aluminum alloy exports from 2006 to 2013 58
    Picture 62 Chinese aluminum alloy exports to Japan 58
    Picture 63 The price for aluminum alloy exported by China to Japan 59
    Picture 64 Chinese aluminum fluoride export 2013 60
    Picture 65 Chinese Al fluoride export FOB price 2013 60
    Picture 66 Chinese carbon anode export 2013 62
    Picture 67 Chinese carbon anode export FOB price in 2013 62
    Picture 68 China’s motor sales in each month during 2012 and 2013 63
    Picture 69 Chinese real estate sales during 2012 and 2013 64
    Picture 70 Chinese real estate under construction in 2013 64
    Picture 71 Chinese real estate started in 2013 65
    Picture 72 Chinese real estate built in 2013 65

    Table 1 Type and chemical components of bauxite around the globe 4
    Table 2 Statistics on Distribution and grades of bauxite in Australia 5
    Table 3 Distribution and grade for Indian bauxite 6
    Table 4 Primary aluminum outputs by regions during 2012 and 2013 21
    Table 5 Operating rate of Chinese alumina refineries in 2013 28
    Table 6 New alumina capacity and designed alumina capacity in China in 2013(10,000t) 30
    Table 7 Chinese new aluminum fluoride capacities 2014 34
    Table 8 Chinese new carbon anode capacities 2014 37
    Table 9 Chinese bauxite imports in 2013 41
    Table 10 Cost performance on bauxite from various countries 46
    Table 11 Top ten Chinese aluminum scraps importers in 2013 55
    Table 12 Top ten Chinese aluminum alloy exporters in 2013 59
    Table 13 Aluminum fluoride export by region 61
    Table 14 Chinese carbon anode exporters in 2013 63

    .Asian Metal Copyright2 China’s alumina production in 2013 26 4Asian Metal Copyright
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