Indium market to turn back?
2005-03-07 12:11:04 【Print】
BEIJING(Asian Metal) 7-Mar-2005 Indium market has kept soaring since last Nov. when the price touched a bottom as low as around usd750/kg. Now, the price remains at usd1010-1040/kg, with some sources reporting higher ones at over usd1050/kg for 4Ns indium. This compared to usd970-1010/kg before the Spring Festival.
Many had thought that after the Spring Festival, the price would surely going up. It really was if we look back at the market trend. However, currently, more and more industry participants are worrying a possible price dip, for the price keeps from going forward and buyers do not like to place orders.
I feel there could be a possible price drop by the end of this month. As far as I know, Japanese, European and Korean buyers all have stocks at present," said a South China based major trader, who exported tens of indium last year, adding, "A major Korean ITO target producer keeps around 40t indium in stock, while it could only consume 4.4tpm indium on a basis of its 6tpm production capacity for ITO target. This means that it would have no demand for indium in the following nines months. What's more, major Japanese end users are said to also each hold tens of tonnes of indium in hand now."
According to the source, ITO target producers are facing a tough demand market for the declining LCD prices. For example, the price of 15-inch screen has fell to usd140 from usd220 last June. Meanwhile, the weak demand is forcing ITO target producers to increase stocks.
The trader is offering a price of usd1000/kg for its 4Ns indium, while it also reported that a domestic deal was concluded last Thursday at rmb9100/kg. He predicted that the price would soon drop down to rmb8000/kg possibly at the beginning of next month.
A western company's representative in South China also expressed similar ideas on the current market trend. "The price has been going up for too long time. Now its support strength is disappearing," the source told Asian Metal. "Both Japanese and Korean people are watching the market and refuse to places orders. They think the current market price is too high. Meanwhile, the weakening demand for ITO powder makes them have to be very careful for any actions."
According to the source, including itself, quite a few Chinese indium suppliers' contracts were broken by a major South Korean buyers, with total quantity as much as 5tpm. Now, the large number of indium would have to find new buyers from the market. Meanwhile, just because that many industry participants had took high expectations, insiders believe that there should be certain amount of stocks held by the market. As the market price is rising to the top point, people who are hurrying to close out may push the price down.
The source just purchased some crude indium 99%min at a price of rmb8600/kg, although many suppliers are quoting a price as high as rmb8800/kg, while mid of last January, the price concluded by the source was only around rmb7200/kg.
While the source acknowledged that the current mainstream price for 4N5 indium is in a range of usd1040-1050/kg and 4Ns at usd1000-1010/kg, it plans to secure a price of usd1040/kg for its 4N5 stock.
A Hunan based trader also agreed with the view. "We bought 800KG indium at rmb9,000/kg for 4N5 indium VAT included yesterday. I think the price might not be able to continue to sit on such a high level, but reduce some."
Even though, the indium still stands in a range of usd1010-1040/kg. Many others still take very positive attitude for the near future market.
"There is still room for the indium price to climb up. Recently, few transactions were concluded for most Japanese buyers were just watching the market, and they did not intend to purchase at such a high level. But I think, they would have to step into the market after they use up their stocks in the coming weeks, " an official from Huludao Zinc told Asian Metal.
Huludao Zinc is now holding tons of indium. It quotes rmb10000/kg for domestic sale and usd1060/kg for export. With a high expectation for the future market, it would rather wait for a moment than sell at a lower price.
A trader from Guangxi also confirmed that the price would rise further, while the time is needed. "I think the price would hit usd1200/kg early this April and the market would be active, for as far as I know, in the past few months, Japanese customers just bought quite few with 300-500KG per batch. There would be a large demand to be seen in the near future, "said the source.
